The Xbox 360 is the winner of the
current
console war. A bit of a premature statement considering as how the PlayStation
3 and Nintendo Wii have only been on the market long enough to have their first
technical teething problems? I think not, and here's why:
The Xbox 360 has won the current
generational console war because it was first to market and is the most mature
system out there. There are over 7.5 million Xbox 360's in the wild as we speak,
the console has overcome its teething problems (does anyone even really
remember the overheating problems anymore?) and, most critically of all, it's
the only one you can actually walk into any given shop and be practically
assured of securing.
So what, says you, Sony and Nintendo
just
need time, right? Well, not if we qualify what a "win" in the
next-gen console war actually is. First of all, Microsoft is probably not
winning over that many PlayStation fanboys. That would be a coup, not a win.
Fanboys are fanatics by any other name and their share of the market isn't
worth attempting to go after at this point.
Secondly, the Nintendo Wii doesn't count
against Microsoft. Every hardcore gamer I know who will be buying a Wii either
already has an Xbox 360 or is planning on getting a PS3. These people can mostly
be counted twice among the market share figures. The
mom and pop and grandma and grandpa new audiences Nintendo is developing don't
matter to Microsoft as they market Gears of War, any everyone else is buying the
Wii after/before another console.
So, if you discount the fanboys and the
old
folk what you are left with is the market of "new" console gamers.
Tired PC gamers, rich PC gamers, budding hardcore gamers... New blood, new money,
new market. These are the undecided who help my dear colleague Rob Wright
further
his notions of parallels between the console wars and US
politics; the swing voters are the ones who you have to watch.
Why, pray tell, will these budding
hardcore
console fanatics buy the Xbox 360? Well, for the reasons above: It's a mature
platform which is easily available. Even Rob
Enderle agrees with me on this one
(I might as well retire now); if a kid wanted a PS3 for Christmas but the
parent can't get one, that kid will get an Xbox 360 and like it. Or, a swing
gamer will say "To heck with standing in line for nine days, I'll just get
an Xbox 360." Once a swing gamer picks up an Xbox 360 they will have
doubled their price in marketing money alone for Sony to win back when the PS4
rolls around.
After all, what real difference is there
in
the systems to complain about unless you're a fanboy? In the world of Xbox vs
PlayStation 90% of games, if not more, are multi-platform releases, and for
every great exclusive PS3 game there will (you better bet) a great Xbox 360
exclusive to counter. The Xbox 360 is available and it works, for less money
than the PS3 to boot. Among the hardcore swing voters it is the platform to
beat.
This will have wider ramifications into
the
realm of HD-DVD vs Blu-ray and beyond, but for now Microsoft can sit with the
happy crown atop its head of being the market leader, the one to beat, in this
current console war. Sure the PS3 will mature during 2007, but who cares? It'll
still cost a hoot and Microsoft will still have more units in the wild than
Sony can possibly supply until well into the future, if even ever
perhaps.
The most impressive thing about this is
the
further context you put it into: Even if Microsoft gave Sony a run for its
money and Sony came out on top of the heap, it would be an impressive feat.
Despite having named its console the "360" so as not to look second
rate to the numerically correct PS3, Microsoft is only on its second console,
ever; the first having been released (in reverse to this time around) a year
after Sony's second had hit the market.
I told everyone who would listen that
beating the crap out of one another to get one of the limited supply of Xbox
360's last Christmas was a fool merely seeding the market for Microsoft to
dominate the market over a year later into 2007. Well, not many listened then
and Microsoft is the market leader today for a lot of guts, good medium to
long-term strategising and good fortune in the guise of their biggest
competitors worst year of blunders.